"If he (Harper) takes the party to minority twice, there are going to be questions raised (about his leadership)," says John Wright, senior vice-president of the Ipsos Reid polling firm. Wright adds that a minority government is a very real possibility given that most Canadians don't really know Harper and, worse yet, don't completely trust him.
Wright says if the Conservatives win a status quo minority, "you got to think the party itself would be looking and thinking about getting another leader."
The next few weeks are the moment of truth on a possible trip to the polls by Canadians before summer. The Conservatives and their opponents have been primed for a possible quick election call, but if it doesn't happen soon, the likelihood is that Harper has decided to wait until the fall or possibly next spring.
And so arise the usual names:
Peter MacKay, because his superficial charm and stunning incompetence are the definition of the media's idea of an ideal Tory leader.
Jim Flaherty, because the media would love nothing more than to haul out all his supposed sins from the Mike Harris years.
Jim Prentice, because he's got the Red Toryism without the fecklessness of Joe Clark.
Maxime Bernier, because he's from Quebec, and can thus restore the unconstitutional convention that the prime minister must come from there.
Jason Kenney, because he's supposedly got an even scarier hidden agenda than the current leader.
And of course, John Baird, of whom it is diplomatically said that "it's unclear if he would want to be put under the spotlight of a leadership bid."
So there you have it, folks. Even though Lester Pearson handled two minority governments without a serious revolt and Mackenzie King handled even worse, Stephen Harper supposedly cannot survive a second minority government.
Of course, how the Liberals are expected to win one with Quebec and the West out of the picture, we are not supposed to ask.
7 comments:
Canadians don't know Harper?
In degrees of stupid, this guy is past the boiling point.
What more does Harper have to do for people to get to know him?
Either you like him or you don't, but the 'we don't know him' nonsense is getting old. The guy has been PM for long enough that even stupid people can take stock. This isn't a dinnerparty or a barbeque. He isn't our buddy. All we need to know is what kind of job he'll do. If a person can't figure that out by now, he doesn't deserve to vote.
Only in the past few days has HArper's obsession with his hair and use of a psychic become public. We still know very little about the prickly Mr. HArper.
In Alberta, people are seriously questioning who HArper is and what he stands for.
In the old days he was a fiscal conservative. Now, he is a huge spender. People believed HArper whne he said he would leave income trusts alone. Now he is full on assaulting the savings (to the tune of $20 billion) of Canadians.
There is still much to learn about HArper.
Pearson lost his first election, then won two minority governments in a row. Got forced into big spending to try for a majority. Then he was replaced. Sounds just like Harper, except Pearson lost that 1st election baaad...
Prentice would be #1 All round competent guy, though we've already had too many PM's from Calgary
2. Lord
3. Bernier
"In Alberta, people are seriously questioning who HArper is and what he stands for"
Riiiggghhhtt.....
I can tell by the way you spell "HArper" (what DOES that mean anyway??) that you are a left leaning "Albertan".
Believe me, the majority of Albertans are complimenting him on the leadership he displays and the fact we FINALLY have a government in Ottawa that gets things done!
Your statement was good for a laugh though.
Oh..that's right anonymous..can't have anybody from anywhere BUT Quebec..especially if you are a lawyer from Quebec..Too bad PMSH is the best leader this country has had in 50 years and will be here for a long time to come..put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Kursk
1)charest
2)prentice
3)Lord
This is an alarmingly unsound analysis of the recent poll numbres. If you look at the polls involving the parties in general, and the party leaders in particular, this much is clear...
1) Stephen Harper is more popular than the Conservative party itself. The last poll had him over 40% for the 'Who Would Make The Best Prime Minister?' question. His party only reached similiar numbers once or twice for overall party approval... most polls have them below 40%.
2) The Liberal party is FAR more popular than Stephane Dion is. The LPC polls as high as the low 30s, while Dion's leadership, approval, and 'best Prime Minister' numbers are often mired below 20%!
This indicates that the problem isn't Harper - indeed Harper is helping the overall arithemetic - the problem is that Canadians are still a bit skeptical of what the new Conservative party itself stands for.
In looking at the list of candidates that could take Harper's place... I have to admit I'm kind of non-plussed. He's definitely the man to stay with barring the LPC actually winning the next election.
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