Striving Against Opposition has done such a thorough and detailed analysis of the latest Ipsos-Reid poll that it would be redundant for me to reproduce another one.
Nonetheless, a few comments thereon:
Projecting the national poll numbers as a uniform increase in votes across the country misses the regional factors that play into our regionally factious political scene. Projections based on regional breakdowns will give more accurate totals.
Saskatchewan and British Columbia are likely to lose a few Conservative seats because of the populist anti-establishment segment of the Reform/Alliance support drifting away from what is now perceived to be an establishment Tory party, back to the NDP, and even the Greens.
The Tories may also have won three or four seats in Saskatchewan because NDP voters inexplicably shot themselves in the foot by defecting to the Liberals in numbers large enough to lose seats, but not large enough to elect Liberals.